Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Ask the Hurler: Wuz I robbed (the sequel)?

Reader Pogue099 asks:

I keep getting reamed for a trade I made in a keeper league where I gave Berkman, Verlander and Bruce for Holliday. I know it was a little bit of a fanboy move but in a 7x7 with 2Bs and SLG% and WHIP/CG as the extra Categories I felt I needed more in those two. I used the two extra spots to grab Mclouth and Ethier everyone is telling me I got jobbed. I have Snell, Billingsley, Lilly, and Peavy already and figured with us only keeping 5 Holliday was worth way more than those two. What do you think?

Well, it's always tough to analyze a keeper league trade without knowing the roster of the owner involved and without knowing whether it's a dynasty league or not. Also, I'm not sure how WHIP/CG equal two additional categories, since WHIP is almost always a normal 5x5 category. But, a lack of information has never stopped me from weighing in before.

Berkman is close to being a non-keeper at this point, particularly in dynasty leagues. Maybe he bounces back, maybe he doesn't. (He does have that strange every other year dominance thing going on.) He injures his oblique seemingly every season, an injury that normally results from poor conditioning of the muscles involved. He's still in his early 30s and a premium pick, but in keeper leagues, he may be decidedly less attractive at the end of '08 or '09.

Holliday has no such question marks. He's several years younger and just a better all-around hitter. Giving up Verlander (a great young pitcher) is a tough "throw-in," but how often do young pitchers dominate year after year? Particularly when they throw that many innings? Not often. If you're familiar with this site, you know how I feel about young pitchers and their values relative to young hitters. I don't like to keep more than one or two SPs in keeper leagues, and since you're overwhelmingly likely to keep Peavy, just how many batters are you going to be throwing back into the draft pool?

Bruce is looking like a future all-star, but with only five keeper slots, how's he compare to others on your roster? He's a year or two away, and Dusty Baker's an idiot. Again, without knowing Pogue099's roster, it's real, real tough to analyze what he's done.

In general, trading depth for quality is always a good decision. Players come out of nowhere to produce good stats, but the premier, first-round players are real tough to acquire. You basically traded a third rounder, a fifth rounder, and a 25th rounder (for this season) for a top-six or seven selection. That's a steep price, but you've got young pitching depth. I personally would have done the move if I had an acceptable Berkman replacement on my roster. If I'd be left scrounging the waiver wire for the likes of Mike Jacobs or Kevin Youkilis, probably not.

Final analysis: you have likely hurt yourself quite a bit for this year (assuming Verlander and Berkman stay healthy), but you are in a much better postition for the next three or four years. If Bruce would have been one of your keepers, then you got hosed.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

My bad Whip isn't the other Cat it is BB
The way I saw it I traded to fill my LF slot for the next 2 years at least(5 if he re-ups with COL)I couldn't see counting on Maybin and Adam Jones all year.

Verlander is young but I don't trust pitchers.

here is the roster
C J.R. Towles (Hou - C)
1B Justin Morneau (Min - 1B)
2B Brandon Phillips (Cin - 2B)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (Was - 3B)
SS José Reyes (NYM - SS)
IF Aaron Hill (Tor - 2B)
LF Matt Holliday (Col - LF)
CF Corey Hart (Mil - CF,RF)
RF Matt Kemp (LAD - RF)
OF Adam Jones (Bal - LF)
Util Mark Teixeira (Atl - 1B)
Util Nick Johnson (Was - 1B)
SP Jake Peavy (SD - SP)
SP Ted Lilly (ChC - SP)
SP Chad Billingsley (LAD - SP,RP)
RP Francisco Cordero (Cin - RP)
RP George Sherrill (Bal - RP)
P Brian Wilson (SF - RP)
P C.J. Wilson (Tex - RP)
P Ian Snell (Pit - SP)
BN Chris Snyder (Ari - C)
BN Nate Mclouth ( Pit - LF,CF,RF)
BN Andre Ethier (LAD - LF,RF)
BN Jayson Nix (Col - 2B)
BN B.J. Ryan (Tor - RP)

Mike Bock said...

First off, what are there, like six teams in your league? That lineup is fucking awesome.

You have Morneau and Teixiera. Basically, Holliday replaced Berkman (I didn't know where you were playing him). This deal looks significantly better for you after glancing at your roster.

Pogue009 said...

Actually I lucked into part of it there were a couple of owners leaving and I randomly got to choose I also had to drop mags ordonez and a bunch of crap but got to keep reyes, phillips, morneau, tex, and peavy. apparently this guy I am taking over for finishe 10th of 12 I have no idea how. But Ifure someone will trade me an arm for a bat at some point if I need it