Sunday, March 9, 2008

Ichiro can't buy a hit

Was perusing the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette this morning and stumbled upon the fact that Ichiro Suzuki is 0-for-14 so far this spring. Fantasy owners probably aren't too worried about the perennial .300+ hitter, though, truth be told, it gives me another reason to feel good about staying away from him this year.

Ichiro will turn 35 years old this fall, and I'm not sure how much longer you can expect a guaranteed 30+ stolen bases from him. (Last year, he only swiped 14 bags after the All-Star Break, including just one in September, and he was caught stealing three times as often in the second half.) I also don't expect him to post an average anywhere near the .351 he put up in '07. My guess he'll hit somewhere between his 2005 (.303) and 2006 (.322) totals. He's still a great source of run production and will net you between 50 and 60 RBIs, but I don't think he's worth taking with the 23rd overall pick, which is where, on average, Yahoo players are drafting him. That's ahead of Mark Teixeira, Brandon Phillips, B.J. Upton and Curtis Granderson. I'd take all of those guys before Ichiro, who's quickly approaching the final stage of his impressive career.

1 comment:

rudy@razzball.com said...

agreed on ichiro...he's a poor value pick. no power. could easily end up at .310 with 30 SBs which isn't much better than, say, Willy Taveras...