Thursday, March 20, 2008

Playometer: B.J. and Turnbow


Gagne's looked awful this spring. Just awful. He didn't look too good last year for Boston, either. I'm basically not even considering him a closer (though I'd take him in the last few rounds).

I do have my eye on Derrick Turnbow, however. Turnbow's problem has never been stuff (he's dominating), it's the walks. You can't be walking a batter two out of every three innings and expect to succeed as a closer. If you looked at nothing other than his batting average against and K-rate in 2006 and 2008, you'd think you were looking at an elite reliever. Get the ball over the plate buddy!

I think Gagne will be ineffective, pretend to be injured so he can quietly try to improve in the minor leagues, and Turnbow ends up with 20+ saves. Just a hunch. When these roid guys derail, they seem to become completely worthless.


It's all over every fantasy news site, so I won't bother with a link: B.J. Ryan's elbow hurts! Amazing! He'll start the year on the DL. Those of you have already drafted, Jeremy Accardo was a steal. For those of you who haven't drafted yet, you're either 1.) revising your cheat sheets, or 2.) pissed that now you'll actually have to pay something close to full value for Accardo. I'm in the second category, myself. I have two cash leagues drafting this weekend. Why couldn't Ryan have waited just a few more days?


waters96 said...

Mike, any thoughts about how badly Turnbox will pollute our ERA and WHIP if we pick him up?

Mike Bock said...

Well, he's obviously more valuable in NL leagues. In terms of polluting your ERA and WHIP, he's an average reliever at this point (and you certainly don't want average relievers who don't garner saves on your team). If you pick him up, you're doing so for one of three reasons:

1.) You think Gagne will implode, and you'll take the K-rate and saves as an offset against his his WHIP and ERA.

2.)You think this is the year Turnbow puts it all together and has a J. Broxton/H. Bell value in addition to potentially closing someday.

3.) You are in a league that counts holds, or an NL-only league, and every back-up closer is being drafted.

Of those three reasons, only 1 and 3 are really valid. And you can only go with 1 if you have the roster room, so work the waiver wire or draft according to your league settings (how many bench spots you have).

franky said...

hey isn't riske in the mix for saves should gagne go down?