Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Ask the Hurler: An early blockbuster

Scott writes:

Loyal FH reader here. I have been debating trading one of my stud outfielders (I ended up with Vlad, Soriano and Carlos Lee somehow) in a 10-team H2H points league. My pitchers: Felix, Sheets, Maine, Pedro, Wainwright. With Pedro’s injury risk, I feel I need to solidify my rotation a bit more. What do you think about:

I TRADE: Alfonso Soriano, Ben Sheets and Rafael Furcal (I have Carlos Guillen at short)

I GET: Curtis Granderson and Jake Peavy

Thanks for any insight!

Bob responds:

First off, it's nice to get a trade question from a reader before he actually makes the deal. One would think that would be the best time to ask for advice.

Scott, I gotta tell ya, I think I'd pull the trigger and make this trade. Granderson will be healthy soon. Sheets will be injured soon. (Search your feelings. You know it to be true.) Losing Furcal costs you stolen bases, but apparently you're starting Guillen at short anyway. (Plus, Granderson actually swiped more bags than Soriano last season. If Soriano runs about as often as he did last year and Granderson comes back soon and runs more, your net loss in that category might not be as bad as you think.)

Oh, and did I mention that you're getting the National League's best pitcher in this deal? (Shut up, Johan people.)

I'm always wary about making a blockbuster trade in April before you really know where you stand. But if you're confident Granderson will be back at 100 percent before the end of the month, and you can live without Furcal's steals, I say go for it.

One question you might want to ask yourself: Do you have a legitimate fantasy outfielder on your bench to start until Granderson returns?


Mike Bock said...

I'd want to know if this league has an MI position. If it doesn't, Furcal was probably not a very good draft choice given that he already had Guillen. Moving Furcal for anywhere near true value would a coup in and of itself.

Scott said...

no MI position, just normal infield, 3 OF and one util (already have sheffield and butler handcuffed to util spot).

I drafted Furcal in the 17th round and really didn't have a spot for him, but I knew he would be good trade bait and good draft value getting him that late.

Tim said...

How many teams are in your league that you got Furcal in the 17th round? Is it for money, and can I join? I'm weary of trading for pitchers since they are more likely to be injured, but you are definitely getting the best out of this trade if there is no MI position and you already have Guillen.

Mike Bock said...

17th round? Huh? How is that even possible.

Yeah, pull the trigger on this deal in a heartbeat. Unless Guillen gets injured, you're not playing Furcal more than 10-15 games this year. He's basically worthless, and the trade is really Alfonso Soriano and Ben SHeets for Peavy and Granderson, which is an awesome deal.

This trade is an example of the somewhat rare situation in which a player's true value far exceeds the value to your team. Typically people draft in such a manner that such issues do not arise.

scott Salter said...

10 team league. I don't know how he slipped to the 17th. He was like the 8th SS taken. Someone reached for Yunel in the 14th.

The person I am trading with was away in the Navy during the draft and autodraft wasnt too kind. He ended up with Peavy, Beckett, Verlander and Lackey... obviously ended up lacking offense. I capitalized and I agree with you all in that I made out in this deal.