Friday, April 25, 2008

Ask the Hurler: Soriano for Rios?

Hoodlumman writes:

I'm in a 6x6 5-year Fantasy Keeper league. We have graduated payouts culminating to a final year in 2011. It's a normal 5x5 with Fielding% for batters and HRs for pitchers added.

Here is my roster.

C Geovany Soto
1B Ryan Garko
2B Chone Figgins
3B Miguel Cabrera
SS José Reyes
OF Nick Markakis
OF Xavier Nady
OF Matt Kemp
Util Evan Longoria
BN Adam LaRoche (Pit - 1B)
BN Aaron Hill (Tor - 2B)
BN Jeff Keppinger (Cin - 3B,SS)
BN Alfonso Soriano (ChC - OF)

I was offered Soriano for Rios with some RPs involved. Neither I nor the GM trading keep pitchers so I won't bother listing our pitching rosters or mentioning those guys.

My question: What are your 4 year outlooks of Rios vs. Soriano? I'm inclined to trade for the future here because I think Soriano's speedier days are behind him. Rios should hit for a lot more RBIs and steal fewer bases. Soriano is old(er). Is TORs lineup damaged by the
absence of Big Hurt?

Bob responds:

I'd go ahead and make the trade for Rios. Soriano is five years older, doesn't run as much as he used to (only 19 stolen bases last year, down from 41 the year before and only two more than Rios had in '07) and seems to find himself injured more and more often these days. Expect to see diminishing returns for Soriano over the next four years. (He'll be 36 at the back end!)

Rios hasn't yet exploded this season like some thought he could, and I've heard some complaining about the attitude adjustment he apparently needs. Still, he's carrying a .391 OBP and has swiped five bags already. The runs and RBI will come, and at 27, he may not have hit his prime yet. Rios' numbers have improved across the board for two straight seasons, and you have to assume, worst-case scenario, they'd at least hold steady for the next few years.

Also, I wouldn't worry about Toronto's roster. Adam Lind is on the way, and the Jays' ownership seems willing to spend the money to try and stay somewhat competitive in the AL East. Rios will be fine in that lineup.

1 comment:

Hoodlumman said...

Thanks for the acknowledgment, guys. As of today, I'm the proud owner of Rios and Broxton for Soriano and Gregg.

Wish me luck.