Saturday, April 12, 2008

Buy low/Sell high

Buy low

Buying low isn't pleasant. Really. It's like bluffing in poker when you have more than pocket change on the table. It sounds good in theory, but typically your palms start to sweat and you just can't do it.

I want you to take a deep breath and try to buy low on C.C. Sabathia. His value will never get any lower without an injury factoring in. In fact, he's basically having the worst season of any healthy pitcher in baseball. You will never have another opportunity to get a fourth-round pick for a pittance. In our pre-season draft guide, we recommended Sabathia because of his looming free-agent contract and relative durability. While he has a reputation of an innings eater, his pitch counts have actually been relatively benign compared to abused workhorses such as Scott Kazmir and John Lackey (both of whom are breaking down). I didn't get to watch much of the game, but I did take a look at his radar gun readings. He's hitting the mid-90s and there's no injury warning signs. He's just going through a brutal stretch.

You didn't have to stomach those first three games. Trades aren't retroactive. Package up a mid-tier starter (for example, Tim Hudson) who's doing well and a decent OF and try to get him.

David Ortiz and Prince Fielder haven't done shit. Maybe Fielder owners will cough him up for Derrek Lee and Jeremy Hermida. You won't know till you try. Ortiz I'd be a little more skeptical of, but he's also a decent buy low candidate.

DO NOT buy low on Roy Oswalt. He allowed, what, 17 home runs today? One of them was a shot by Jorge Cantu that may have entered low earth orbit. He was an average pitcher last year whose ERA was artificially low considering his WHIP and Ks. Hopefully you avoided him. I'd steer clear of him for the indefinite future.

Sell high

Johnny Cueto. 'Nuff said.

No comments: