Monday, April 14, 2008

Buy Low/Sell High

Buy Low

The buy-low candidates are breathtaking. I've never seen so many studs get off to such horrific starts. The usual guidelines apply: make sure the problems aren't health related (or don't appear to be health related) and then offer up your own scorching hot players.

Ryan Braun and Garrett Atkins are both having miserable 2008s. Atkins is a notoriously a slow starter, and Braun is going to turn it around at some point. Now is the time to take Alex Gordon and another mid-round pick and try to acquire one of them (if you're going for Braun, it's going to cost a lot more). Gordon's going to have a good year, but he's not going to be Atkins or Braun (at least this season).

Prince Fielder still hasn't hit a home run. Offer up Carlos Pena and change for him. The man had 50 home runs last year, and at some point he'll make you happy you acquired him.

Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are both dinged up. I'd try to acquire either one. Derek Jeter ... not so much. Considering we're dealing with leg injuries to guys who steal a lot of bases, you need to weigh your team's strengths carefully. For Reyes, especially, it's a risk. Something like Miguel Tejada and Michael Bourn sounds about right.

I still think Verlander's arm might fall off at any moment, and on paper, he's having just an awful season. Then again, you can't win leagues if you don't take chances, and trading seventh round value for Verlander is a lot better than having to spend a fourth round pick on him. His WHIP and Ks are fine, which should tell you something (namely, that he's getting really, really unlucky).

I am officially declaring the entire Tigers' roster as buy-low candidates.

Here's a guy who may be getting dumped in quite a few leagues: Adam LaRoche. Look at his career statistics. Notice how awful he typically is at the beginning of the year? Now's the time to get him. Maybe for free.

Sell High

I'd sell George Sherrill. Not because I think his arm is going to fall off, or anything, but because there are so many closers that look ready to collapse (next in line: Joe Borowski). If someone pays you for Sherrill's stats, move him. Same thing with C.J. Wilson. Try to get an upgrade at a position, then go pick up one of the umpteen closers-in-waiting.

Can you still sell high on Cueto? Do it.

I'm not sure if it's "selling high", considering his value has dropped quite a bit since draft day, but you need to think about moving Bedard. If you could get Cole Hamels or Felix Hernandez (not likely on either count), do it. Maybe go even lower if need be. "Hip inflammation" has now wiped away two of his starts. The diagnosis is still up in the air. If he comes back strong, sell immediately. We still haven't heard of a specific event that caused this problem. While I'm a J.D., not an M.D., when someone is having recurring pain with no traumatic injury to point to, I tend to think it's chronic. As in: not going away anytime soon. In fact, considering Bedard generates a lot of his force with hip torsion, this may be arthritis. Arthritis is treatable, and can often subside on its own, but do you want to be riding the Bedard roller-coaster all year? Believe it or not, I'd trade him straight up for Sabathia.

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