Friday, May 9, 2008

Buy Low/Sell High

Sell High

You know what the key is to selling high? Look at your team and find the players who make you the happiest. Anyone outperforming their career norms, breaking out in a big way, or providing completely unexpected waiver wire joy? That's who you try to trade. It's hard, I know.

Russell Martin may have recovered from an awful start (currently the number four ranked catcher on Yahoo, 123rd overall), but from no position other than catcher would an owner be satisfied with this production from a third or fourth-round pick. Last year, Martin stole 15ish bases through the break and about six thereafter. He stole a big fat zero in September. He only has three, and we're entering mid-May. I wouldn't expect him to suddenly steal 15 bases in the second half or go on a June tear like he did last year. If you can trade him for Ryan Doumit and a Jon Rauch type closer, do it.

You don't want to trade Lance Berkman, do you? You've bought into my "even numbered year" theory and concluded that Lance is going to have a monumental campaign. Well, Berkman isn't going to steal 25+ bases. He may hit 40 home runs. He may bat .300ish. But those steals aren't happening. Heck, he's never even reached 10. And he doesn't look appreciably thinner. You need to have one name on your mind for Berkman: Matt Holliday. He had a lousy first week or two, but he's still the 18th-ranked player on Yahoo overall. If you can get someone to trade straight-up, do it. I'd even throw in a marginally useful player to make it happen.

Dan Uggla is hitting more home runs than his batting average, BABIP, and career statistics support. I'd try to swing a trade involving him for Chase Utley (fat chance), Brandon Phillips (growing less likely by the day), or B.J. Upton.

Buy Low

You will never have a better chance to acquire Alex Rodriguez without trading a vital organ.

I'd buy low on Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard. Can you trade a guy like Chipper Jones straight up for either? What are the chances Fielder and Howard stay down and Chipper stays healthy and bats .400?

I would not buy low on Carlos Beltran, Ryan Braun, or Vlad Guerrero. I wasn't too high on them preseason.

Mark Teixeira is just not a good April hitter. Go get him now!

Hunter Pence
is on fire. If you want him for less than full value, better act now.

You probably noticed I didn't include any pitchers in this column. That's for a reason. My personal BABIP on batter recommendations is quite a bit higher than pitching recommendations.

2 comments:

Scott said...

I somehow was able to draft R-Mart in the 7th round... would you still suggest selling high? I feel like I got great value for him.

Also, just traded Carlos Lee and Felix Hernandez for A-Rod... how'd I do?

Mike Bock said...

If A-Rod returns next week, very well.

If you can get full perceived value for Martin, I would absolutely do it.