Thursday, May 1, 2008

Fantasy Errata

-- Feels like only yesterday (actually Tuesday) that I reminded people that soft-tossing, lucky-as-hell pitchers like Scott Olsen (Marlins) and Brian Bannister (Royals) had a nice run but should now be discarded, sold high, or benched until favorable matchups presented themselves. If you didn't take my advice and started Bannister yesterday (on the road against the Rangers, no less), sorry. Have you cut him yet? No? You'll probably do it when you stop pounding Firestone Walker Union Jack IPA.

-- My love for Geovany Soto may go unrequited, but we'll always have this glorious summer together. Two home runs, six RBI, and if he keeps this up for a few more weeks people are going to start whispering "Mike Piazza's rookie year, 1993 ..." in their sleep.

-- Oliver Perez is a whip killer. Dude, even though those runs don't count against your ERA, those 25 walks count against my team WHIP. If he puts up one or two good starts in a row, I'm moving him. I still think he'll end up with a 3.5ish ERA and a 1.3 WHIP with a K per inning, which are good numbers, but he's just not a fun player to own. Life is too short.

-- Someone cut Carlos Quentin for Frank Thomas in one of my leagues. He's going to be regretting that soon and maybe for the rest of his life.

-- Ryan Freel's quietly making a pretty good case for playing time. If he got it at second base, he might actually be worth something. But, alas, he probably won't.

-- Jeff Clement appeared at catcher today. Nine more, and he'll be picked up in more than just AL-only leagues. Nice job really screwing up that situation, Seattle. Jose Vidro and Kenji Johjima are now completely unownable.

-- Eric Hinske: I'm starting to believe. It's not as though Tampa doesn't have a knack for suddenly discovering power-hitters before they disappear into baseball oblivion (Carlos Pena, etc.).

-- Brian Roberts has now been caught stealing three times, as opposed to 10 successful thefts. Getting awfully close to that 70% line of demarcation below which you should never attempt to steal bases.

-- Cliff Lee: Still not believing, now getting annoyed. How many hanging curveballs are guys going to pop up for this guy? He has a BABIP this season of about .150 (that's preposterously, insanely low for a guy with average career strikeout totals). To put this in perspective, his career BABIP is about .287. He has 578 career strikeouts in close to 773.1 innings. That's not horrible, but there's no reason to think he's going to keep striking out .9 batters per inning. If you can sell high on him twice, do so.

-- Manny Acosta, on paper, had a horrific day. Don't be fooled. His manager left him out there for a third inning, despite his having thrown about 50 pitches. His days may be numbered as Smoltz will be coming back to vulture saves (though he won't pitch on back-to-back days). Then again, Smoltz is old and injured, as opposed to young and injured -- like Rafael Soriano. I wouldn't be surprised if neither of them pitchered regularly until June.

-- Big time "buy low" on Jon Rauch. Hope his owner missed the report that Cordero is gone for at least a few months, and maybe for the season, and try to buy him for 75 cents on the dollar. If he was the Washington closer going into the year, he probably would have gone about the 12th or 13th round in 12-team leagues.

-- C.J. Wilson comes in for a non-save situation, gets lit up. Of course.

-- Ervin Santana is dead to me.

-- I don't like anything I see about Jeremy Bonderman. I'd cut him in a heartbeat for Max Scherzer. In his win today he struck out one guy in nearly eight innings. Really. That gives him 18 Ks in about 35 innings this season. He's never had an ERA below 4.00, and his WHIP is typically closer to 1.40 than 1.30. Why is he drafted every year?

-- Getting close to cutting time for Victorino. It's pretty obvious Manuel has soured on him, as he came off the DL only to sit on the bench and pinch hit. Werth certainly has earned his spot, but what has Jenkins done? Then again, what has Victorino done?

-- Another good day for Felipe Lopez. I'm no longer looking for reasons to keep playing Orlando Cabrera. Congrats, Felipe. You've been promoted.


Steve said...

Mike - any thoughts on what the Smoltz situation means for Mike Gonzalez?

Does he become the Joe Beimel of the Braves? i have him in my DL slot...

Don Ford said...

I thought Olsen threw in the mid-90's. He's a guy with a 10 million dollar arm and a 10 cent brain.

Should I drop Victorino for Damon?

waters96 said...

You're on fire today. Your comments are dead solid perfect!!

Mike Bock said...

I would not drop Victorino for Damon until I was sure Victorino was platooning/lost his starting job. Which should be readily apparent within the next two days.

Mike Gonzalez=useless in all but the deepest of leagues at this point. I mean, what are the chances he's effective immediately after TJ surgery? The only reason you'd want him is because he might close. There was a slight window of opportunity with Soriano and Moylan gone indefinitely, but now? He's going to be a lefty set-up man.

Scott Olsen doesn't seem to throw as hard as he once did. Instead of 92-94, he seems to be working in the 90-91 range so far this year (I've only had a chance to watch one of his starts).

Even if he's not a soft-tosser, he's definitely "lucky as hell", considering his 15 Ks in 40 innings pitched and therefore his completely unsustainable/ridiculous BABIP of .208.