Thursday, September 11, 2008

A Steady Stream

With a full slate of games on tap for Friday, September 12th, it's hard to believe that 20 of the 30 scheduled starting pitchers are owned in less than 50% of all ESPN leagues. That presents a lot of opportunities (and risks) to stream pitchers. Let's take a look. (I've added the scheduled opponent's pitcher so please let me know if this information seems helpful.)
  • Scott Baker (42.7%) @ Baltimore vs. Daniel Cabrera (6.7%): Baker's last two outings have produced some nice numbers (13.1 IP, 10 H, 2.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .217 BAA, 1.80 KBB, 6.1 K/9). He's also recorded a quality start five of his last 6 times out. Facing Cabrera should work in Baker's favor.
  • Gil Meche (40.3%) @ Cleveland vs. Cliff Lee (100%): In 10 starts since the All-Star game, Meche is 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He's also allowed only 51 H in 66 IP with a .213 BAA. Need more? How about his 3.18 KBB and a 9.5 K/9 ratios? He's facing Cliff Lee so a win might be asking a bit much from Kansas City but I am hoping for a pitcher's duel.
  • Jeff Francis (14.5%) @ home vs. LA Dodgers' Chad Billingsley (100%): Francis has thrown five straight quality starts but only has a 1-1 record to show for it but his 2.51 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 2.71 KBB are very stream-worthy. Billingsley is a tough opponent but Francis has pitched well in four starts against the Dodgers this season (2.49 ERA/1.22 WHIP in 25.1 IP).
  • Jason Marquis (3.8%) @ Houston vs. Jack Cassel (0%): Marquis has some good numbers over his last 31 innings pitched (3-1, 3 QS, 2.90 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .214 BAA) but Houston has roughed him up a bit this year (5.09 ERA in 17.2 IP). Inconsistency is probably the reason hs is only 3.8% owned.
  • Manny Parra (34.1%) @ Philadelphia vs. Cole Hamels (100%): His overall numbers aren't that great and facing Hamels makes this start even less attractive but his 3.38 ERA and 10.13 K/9 over his last 3 starts is encouraging. Unfortunately, he has only gone more than six innings twice in his last ten starts.
  • Scott Olsen (15.1%) @ home vs. Washington's Shairon Martis (0%): Olsen has been good at home this season except for his record (4-6, 90 H in 100 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .237 BAA, 2.16 KBB, 6.0 K/9). He's facing Washington's 27th ranked offense. I'd take a chance streaming Olsen, if needed.
Here are some of the high risk guys I'll be keeping an eye on but probably avoiding unless I get desperate:
  • Johnny Cueto (43.6%) @ Arizona vs. Brandon Webb (100%): Cueto was roughed up pretty good (5 ER in 5.1 IP vs. Cubs) in his only start since returning from a strained elbow. Not sure why the Reds aren't shutting him down for the season but I guess that's how Dusty Baker rolls (i.e. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior). Brandon Webb should have no problem recording his 20th victory.
  • Tim Wakefield (10.9%) @ home vs. Toronto's David Purcey (1.1%): In three starts since coming off the DL, Wakefield has been struggling (12.2 IP, 13 ER). In two of Purcey's last three outings, he limited the Rays to one earned run in 16 IP with 18 K. Sandwiched in between those starts was a three inning effort in which he allowed five earned runs. Both pitchers seem too risky but I'd lean towards Purcey.
  • Jonathan Sanchez (32.4%) @ San Diego vs. Jake Peavy (100%): Sanchez hasn't done much since coming off the DL on September 1st (10 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) and Peavy has been doing everything (2.45 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.55 K/9) except winning (1-2) over the last 30 days.
Guys I am avoiding at all costs:
  • Paul Maholm (11.5%) is still a Pirate pitcher, right?
  • Greg Smith (10.6%) is facing the potent Texas Rangers.
  • Ryan Rowland-Smith (2.0%) gets the LA Angels. I don't see the Angels letting up until K-ROD gets 70 saves.
  • Sidney Ponson (1.4%) proves that 98.6% of people realize he is garbage.
  • Matt Harrison (1.1%) is borderline streamable but there are better options on this day.
  • Mike Hampton (0.8%) also proves that some people just don't understand how to win.
  • Joel Pineiro (0.6%) barely belongs in the bullpen let alone spot starting.
I truly appreciate feedback on my stream-worthy pitchers but give me something more than "Moyer??? You dumb ass!!!" Thanks.


Anonymous said...

if you're in a league in which baker, meche, and/or parra are available, then u shouldn't need to stream. it should be a walk in park.

sonny4gov said...

No wonder you're oblivious to Maholm. Bob didn't even mention him in his guest Pirates write-up, which is an embaressing oversight for a homer Pittsburgh resident.

Anglophillie said...

Hey,Moyer wasnt such a dumb ass move after all..........yes,giving the opposition pitcher saves a lot of time.I really like Meche today,how much would this guy be worth if he pitched for a decent team?

Daniel Aubain said...

I was kinda being sarcastic about Maholm because my new policy is to avoid streaming all Pirates pitchers.
I've been burned too many times.
But that is also a good point about Bob not including him in his article.

Bob Taylor said...

As a Pirates fan, watching Maholm's progress this year has been exciting and encouraging.

As a fantasy player ... not as thrilling. His stats don't make him a Top 50 starting pitcher this year. (Although I probably could have mentioned him in the Snell/Gorzy section, just to point out that not all went to hell with the starting five. Just most of it.)

Andy said...

These Marlins have been very good streamers in the past two days. I'm glad I picked them up.